Summer 2016

Issued 01 Feb 2016

The Long Range Forecast for Summer 2016 may not bode well for Missouri. Strong El Nino conditions are collapsing in the East Pacific, and many models project us to be near or at La Nina conditions by late next fall. Almost every El Nino from 1950 – present has moved immediately to La Nina. These seasons are typically associated with warmer and dryer conditions than last summer.
 
The long range forecast for winter 2016-16 ended well. The temperatures were 1.5-2.0 standard deviations above normal in MO. We projected about 1.0 standard deviations, which was not bold enough. For precipitation, we projected dry, but it was wetter than normal. So our forecast verified at 2 points out of four, but for the bonus was we hit the amount of snow for Mid-Missouri, and we received less than 10 inches of snow. There is still some time to get into the 10 – 15 inch range we’d forecast.
 
Last winter’s forecast (2014-15) was also pretty strong as we landed three of four points. We said last winter would be colder and drier than normal. We missed on the actual amount of precipitation, but last year, all and all was a good forecast. This was based on weak El Nino conditions, as well as the persistence of the warm waters off the coast of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We were saved by a cold February 2015. We received snowfall close to the seasonal norm.
 
Our forecast for Summer 2016 is warm and dry, by about 1.0 standard deviations each. This could spell trouble for agricultural interests across the state, especially if the dryness comes during critical plant growth/production times. Also, enclosed is our experimental crop yield forecasts for Corn and Soybeans. Please use with caution.

 

Summary

Forecast period

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Precipitation

Primary Reasoning(s)

Forecast Verification (0-2 points)

Jun 16 – Aug 16

Warmer than normal, by +1.0 sigma or more, CPC tending warm.

Drier than normal by 0.5 – 1.0 sigma. CPC tending normal.

This was an El Nino to La Nina transition year. Expectations following Newberry et al. (2016).

Warmer +4.1 F - 2
Wetter +6.00” - 0
NCEP 1/0
Climo 0/0

 

NOTE: These are our forecasts and they are based on the information found in several publications on the Climate Group's website (see Climate Variability section). One should not consider that these will be 100% reliable. Also, they forecast the AGGREGATE statistical character of the summer (June, July, August) or winter (December, January, February) season. This does not mean that warm and cold spells, wet and dry spells will not all occur in one month or season. Please use with caution.

If you have any questions contact me at LupoA [at] missouri [dot] edu.