Forecast scores since winter 2002-2003

Forecast period

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Precipitation

Primary Reasoning(s)

Forecast Verification

Overall points

16 Winter forecasts
15 summer forecasts

16 Winter forecasts
15 summer forecasts

31 total forecasts

GCC 18/14 win
Climo 12/15 win
CPC 9/14 win

GCC 16 / 17 sum
Climo 9/ 16 sum
CPC 10/15 sum

GCC 34 / 31 tot
Climo 21 / 31 tot
CPC 19 / 29 tot

Overall performance

Temperature forecasts can accumulate as many as 2 points.

Same for precipitation, thus 4 points are possible for a perfect forecast.

σT sum = 2.17°
σP sum = 4.29”

σT win = 3.40°
σP win = 2.09”

avg fcst: 2.10 pts
winter: 2.00 pts
summer: 2.20 pts

Temps: 1.13 pts
Pcpn: 1.00 pts

Climo 0.68 / 1.00
CPC 0.61 /0.94


Skill Scores for the long-range forecast generated here versus climatology (** - indicates statistical significance above climatology at the 95% confidence level and * - at the 90% confidence level).

Forecast period Skill Score (%)
   
Total (Temperature + Precipitation) 18.0 **
Temperature 31.7% **
Precipitation 0%
   
Total Summer Season 22.9% **
Temperature 33.3%
Precipitation 7.1%
   
Total Winter Season 13.5% *
Temperature 30.0% **
Precipitation -5.9%